[sig-policy] IPv6 Policy Proposal - prop-030-v001

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  • Subject: [sig-policy] IPv6 Policy Proposal - prop-030-v001
  • From: Geoff Huston <gih at apnic dot net>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 11:26:26 +1000
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    • 
      regards,
      
        Geoff Huston
        Stephan Millet
      
      
      

      Attachment: 20050809-IPv6-APNIC POLICY PROPOSAL-gr.doc
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      Attachment: 20050809-IPv6-APNIC POLICY PROPOSAL-gr.pdf
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      ______________________________________________________________
      
      prop-030-v001: 	Proposal to amend APNIC IPv6 assignment and utilisation
                      requirement policy
      
      Authors:      	Stephan Millet      <stephan (a) telstra.net>
      	        Geoff Huston	    <gih (a) apnic.net>
      
      Version:	1.0
      
      Date:	        10 August 2005
      ______________________________________________________________
      
      
      
      Proposal to amend APNIC IPv6 assignment and utilisation requirement policy
      
      10 August 2005
      
      Stephan Millet, Telstra
      Geoff Huston, APNIC
      
      ________________________________________
      
      Introduction
      
      The current APNIC IPv6 policies are documented in APNIC-089 ?IPv6 Address
      Allocation and Assignment Policy?. Under these policies, IPv6 end site
      assignment sizes are to be determined as follows:
      
      ?	/48  in the general case, except for very large subscribers 
      ?	/64  when it is known that one and only one subnet is needed by
                   design 
      ?	/128 when it is absolutely known that one and only one device is
                   connecting.
      
      The current policy also specifies that address holders are able to receive
      a subsequent IPv6 allocation when they reach the ?evaluation threshold?.
      The evaluation threshold is a measure of past address utilization in terms
      of the number of end sites in /48 units and is determined using a HD-ratio
      of 0.8.
      
      This is a proposal to amend the end site assignment points with the
      addition of a further assignment size, amendment of the description of the
      applicability of the assignment sizes, the evaluation threshold value, and
      the method of calculating end-site assignment efficiency.
      
      These measures, if undertaken generally by all RIRs, would increase the
      anticipated useful lifetime of IPv6 to encompass a deployment period in
      excess of 100 years, in which period no further allocation or assignment
      policy changes are anticipated to the base addressing plan for IPv6.
      
      Summary of the current problem
      
      The current IPv6 policies were based upon the ?wait and see? approach
      described in RFC 3177, under which only 15 percent of the available IPv6
      pool has been released for potential allocation, with the remaining 85
      percent ?reserved? for allocation under potentially different allocation
      policies. The rationale of this approach was that if subsequent experience
      showed that the conditions of the initial addressing plan were flawed by
      being too liberal, then there would be opportunity to create more
      restrictive policies subsequently. However, such an approach also raises
      concerns relating to stability of the policy environment and questions of
      fairness in a system that may provide reward for early adopters and
      barriers for late adopters. This is a strong point of criticism in the
      refinement of IPv4 addressing plans, and, if possible, a recurrence of this
      situation with respect to IPv6 should be avoided.
      
      A detailed explanation of these issues is provided in Attachment A ?The
      IPv6 Address Plan?.
      
      Situation in other RIRs
      
      All RIRs currently uses the same policies relating to assignment sizes and
      evaluation threshold for IPv6. However, there have been discussions
      relevant to this proposal in the various RIR policy development forums, as
      described below.
      
      ARIN:
      
      During May 2005, the ARIN ppml mailing list received several postings from
      the community discussing issues similar to those raised in this policy
      proposal. In particular, on 25 May, a proposal to change the HD ratio in
      IPv6 allocations to 0.94 was submitted to the ppml mailing list. The policy
      proposal is still under discussion and is available at:
      
      http://www.arin.net/policy/proposals/2005_5.html
      
      LACNIC:
      
      At the LACNIC VIII meeting, there were discussions about the responsible
      allocating of IPv6 space. Many voices favoured retaining /48 as the default
      size for reassignment but to consider further observations about the use of
      a 0.8 HD-ratio. An evaluation of assignment sizes is to be carried out by
      the IPv6 Task Force Chair as a basis for further discussion at LACNIC IX.
      
      RIPE:
      
      During discussions at the RIPE 50 meeting, many expressed the view that /48
      assignments are too much for many users for now and in the future. There
      appeared to be general agreement that RFC3177 needs some revision. Although
      many people agreed that /48 assignments should remain, there was expression
      of a need for a new category that falls somewhere between /48 and /64, for
      users that have a need for subnetting but for which a /48 seems excessive.
      Discussions continued in the RIPE mailing list and it is expected that an
      Internet draft will be written in time for discussion at RIPE 51.
      
      AfriNIC:
      
      There have not been significant discussions on the AfriNIC mailing list
      relevant to this proposal.
      
      Details of proposal
      
      It is proposed to make the following changes to the existing APNIC IPv6
      policy:
      
      1. Define an additional end site assignment size of /56. This /56
         assignment should be considered the ?general case, intend for small
         office, household, and personal networks, and other small and medium-
         sized deployments where the number of potential subnets exceeds 1, but
         is not expected to exceed 256.
      
      2. Amend the existing policy regarding /48 end-site assignments to refer
         specifically to assignments to large enterprise and corporate end-site
         environments where there is a requirement for more than 255 subnets at
         the end site.
      
      3. Amend the IPv6 evaluation threshold for subsequent allocations to that
         matching an HD-ratio value of 0.94.
      
      4. Amend the evaluation threshold calculation to be based on default end
         site assignment size of a /56. Further end-site assignment information
         should be provided to APNIC in order to use a different average end-site
         assignment size for HD-ratio calculation purposes.
      
      Advantages and disadvantages of adopting the proposed policy:
      
      The advantage of these proposed changes is that, on the basis of the best
      available evidence now, no significant changes would be required to the
      IPv6 assignment policies within the long term foreseeable future. This will
      also lead to greater degree of fairness in IPv6 use for the entire lifetime
      of the protocol.
      
      The potential disadvantage of these proposals is that the size of
      assignments to most end sites would be less generous. However, given the
      large amount space available within even a /56 prefix, this is unlikely to
      affect many users. In any event, larger sites will still be able to justify
      /48 assignments.
      
      For more details, please refer to Attachment A ?The IPv6 Address Plan?.
      
      Effect on APNIC members and general Internet community:
      
         End users:
      
          For sites falling with the classification listed within item 1 of the
          proposal, there is no significant impact, other than an increase in
          address efficiency through the assignment of an 8 bit subnet identifier
          space. It is not anticipated that such end sites will have a
          requirement for more than 256 distinct subnets.
      
          For larger sites, the /48 assignment size is preserved, and there is no
          impact arising from this policy proposal.
      
        ISPs and LIRs:
      
          ISPs and LIRs will have two changes to their use of IPv6 addresses. 
      
          First, the threshold end site assignment efficiency level is between
          30% to 50% for most ISPs and LIRs when based on a 0.94 HD Ratio. ISPs
          will need to undertake network address plans according to this target
          level.
      
          Secondly, end-sites will need to be classified within three general
          categories rather than the existing two: the /64 and /48 assignment
          sizes remain in place, but the /48 is now intended for larger corporate
          and campus end sites where the subnet requirement is anticipated to
          exceed 255 over time. Smaller end sites, including residential, SOHO,
          and medium office applications, where the subnet requirement is not
          anticipated to exceed 255 subnets are assigned a /56 as an end site
          assignment.
      
      Effect on NIRs:
      
          It is proposed that the NIRs would implement the amendments described
          above.
      
      Implementation
      
      Pending consensus to adopt this proposal in the Asia Pacific region, APNIC
      would liaise with the other RIRs in an attempt to achieve a globally
      coordinated consensus.
      
       
      
      Background Material
      
      The following material is not formally part of the Policy Proposal.
      It is included here only for informational purposes.
      
      
      1. The IPv6 Address Plan
      	Geoff Huston (Attachment A)
      
      2. Internet Draft: draft-narten-iana-rir-ipv6-considerations-00.txt
      	Thomas Narten
      
      3. Internet Draft: draft-narten-ipv6-3177bis-48boundary-00.txt
      	Thomas Narten
      	Geoff Huston
      	Lea Roberts
      
       
      ATTACHMENT A
      The IPv6 Address Plan
      July 2005
      Geoff Huston
       
      
      The IPv6 Global Unicast Address Plan uses a division of the address into
      three components: a global network identifier, that corresponds to an
      address prefix announced in the public network, a subnet identifier, which
      is used to support internal structure within corporate or campus networks,
      and a device identifier part that is used to support unique identification
      of hosts within the local subnet.
      
      The device identifier part of an IPv6 address is 64 bits in length, and the
      global identifier and local subnet identifier occupies the leading 64 bits.
      In addition, there are Internet Architecture Board guidelines that propose
      that the local subnet identifier should be generally fixed at a 16 bit
      length [RFC3177]. IPv6 global unicast addresses therefore have an
      associated address plan that uses a global network identifier in a 48 bit
      field, a subnet identifier in a 16 bit field, and a local device identifier
      in a 64 bit field (Figure 1).
      
      
       
      Figure 1 ? IPv6 Address Structure (RFC 3513, RFC 3177)
       
      
      It?s reasonable to ask why the IPv6 address plan appears to have adopted
      the original IPv4 model of fixed length sub-fields within the address plan.
      The trade-off is one of simplicity versus efficiency. A fixed length
      address plan lends itself to simplicity in the associated procedural
      aspects of configuring a network and its devices with addresses. However,
      in adopting a ?one size fits all? approach, this fixed length address plan
      tends to err on the side of encompassing as many network scenarios as
      possible, and therefore allowing very generous sizes within the fixed size
      components of the address. Variable sized address plans tend to have higher
      procedural and operational overheads due the fact that every deployment is
      in effect a custom deployment, but can be adapted to meet individual
      requirements quite precisely. The IPv6 fixed length plan still allows
      customization, but the default action is the same in all cases, and, in
      theory, these networks can be rolled "out of the box."
      
      One of the objectives of IPv6 is to create networking environments that can
      work straight out of the box, and that setting up a network should not rely
      on detailed expert configuration of each network component. This is a
      natural outcome of the emerging concept of networking as a ubiquitous
      commodity. The rationale behind this design choice is that there is no
      effective shortage of address space, and therefore no reason to impose
      additional configuration burdens on the function of deployment of IPv6
      networks in the field. For this reason IPv6 has adopted the model of using
      both a fixed size parameter for the device identifier, defining this field
      as a 64 bit value, and recommending a general default size for the subnet
      identifier of a 16 bit field.
      
      Does this address architecture leave us enough address space to encompass
      all the various visions for deployment of IPv6?
      
      The Demand Model for Global Identifiers
      
      Within this address plan there are 48 bits for the global routing
      identifier. There are 281,474,976,710,656 global identifiers in this 48 bit
      space.
      
      The demand model for these global identifiers is effectively one of
      consideration of global populations over some decades to come. This
      includes considerations of numbers of households, numbers of workplaces,
      numbers of public agencies, in looking at human activities and their
      associated communications requirements. However we are also looking at
      aspects of deployment of silicon, which implies not only consideration of
      populations of conventional computers, but also consumer electronics, civil
      infrastructure elements, embedded devices and similar. The considerations
      of the size of these global populations is of the order of billions in each
      case, and in looking at a span of some five to tem decades of use this is
      perhaps better phrased as populations to be serviced with deployments of
      tens of billions in each of these segments.
      
      We can also expect that the massive scale of deployment will also lead to
      further commoditization of the service provider market, so that we may
      expect some thousands of service enterprises each servicing tens of
      millions of service endpoints in markets that will be characterized by
      economies of volume rather than higher valued efforts of service
      differentiation.
      
      The rough order of magnitude of the size of these end populations over time
      is one of the order of tens of billions, or even possibly low hundreds of
      billions. The demand population for addressed end sites is then of the
      order of 1011 to 1012. This is equivalent to 240, or some 40 bits of
      address space if we could achieve 100% address utilization efficiency in
      addressing end sites.
      
      The Routing Constraint
      
      Network addresses have utility when they are deployed in the context of a
      network. For the network to be able to use these addresses then the address
      plan must fit into the structure of available routing technologies.
      
      Making routing work across very large networks is a long standing issue,
      and our accumulated understanding of large scale routing to date is that
      the most effective scaling mechanism for routing is the use of aggregation
      of information through the imposition of hierarchies in the address plan.
      There have been a series of efforts to investigate future routing systems
      that exhibit radically different scaling properties as compared to the
      current capabilities of the Border Gateway Protocol, and it would be
      comforting to take the view that the global network will migrate to a
      different form of routing that has substantially improved scaling
      properties. However no such routing system has emerged so far from this
      work, and this different form of routing remains unspecified.
      
      It may be more prudent to take the view that the changes to the inter-
      domain routing system will be more incremental in nature over the coming
      years, and that the scaling properties of the existing inter-domain routing
      protocol, BGP, will be a continuing factor here. The current IPv4 network
      carries some 160,000 entries, or of the order of 105. It would be
      reasonable to expect that further refinements of the model and capability
      improvements in routing elements may lift this by some two orders of
      magnitude. This indicates that the constraint model of routing appears to
      be capable of supporting a system with the order of 107 entries.
      
      The difference between these two numbers, 1012 and107, requires some
      leverage in terms of aggregation of addresses into routing entries. The
      tool that we have to undertake this leverage is that of hierarchies in the
      address space, and the associated issue is that of the level of hierarchies
      that need to be used within various providers? address plans. The
      efficiency of such address plans in terms of the ratio of total address
      space and the numbered end sites is a critical factor in looking at total
      consumption levels.
      
      Aggregation and address hierarchies are, in general, relatively inefficient
      addressing plans, and in looking at total demand estimates then the
      expected address utilization efficiency is a factor in the overall demand
      estimation. It is also the case that the addressing plan has to accommodate
      both large and small providers.
      
      So the next question is one of aggregation efficiency, namely, what level
      of efficiency can be anticipated if one were to deploy 1012 end sites in a
      network routing system capable of supporting some 107routing entries?
      
      Current IPv6 Address Allocation Policies
      
      Before attempting to answer this question it is useful to briefly review
      the current address allocation policies as used for IPv6. The current
      structure is one where the Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) allocate
      address blocks to service providers. Within the terminology used by the
      RIRs these service providers are termed ?Local Internet Registries? (LIRs).
      
      The minimum allocation unit to LIRs is a /32. LIRs can have access to
      larger address blocks based on a utilization target applied to the number
      of end sites for which they will be providing IPv6 services. This
      utilisation target is based on a Host Density Ratio (more later on this
      ratio).
      
      When the LIR has used the block in accordance with the target utilization
      level a further allocation is made, again with a minimum size of a /32
      address block.
      
      LIRs assign address space to end sites, or customers. The assignment
      policies note that where the end site is a single device with a single
      network interface, then the assignment is a single address, or a /128. If
      there is the certain knowledge that the end site will only have a
      requirement for a single subnet then the allocation is a /64. In all other
      cases the default assignment unit is a /48, allowing for a pool of 16 bits,
      or 65,536 values, to be used to number each subnet. Considering the range
      of possible subnet technologies that reach down to the level of personal
      networks such as Bluetooth, the anticipated general case is that each end
      site is assigned a /48 address block.
      
      The RIR address policies are based on a recommendation from the Internet
      Architecture Board, as documented in [RFC3177].
      
      The Host Density Ratio
      
      The above description uses the concept of a ?target utilization level? as a
      means of determining when a block of addresses is considered to be fully
      utilized.
      
      Networks are not static entities, and various parts of a network grow and
      shrink over time. The common practice is to divide a network's address
      space into continuous blocks of addresses, each of which is assigned to
      serve a distinct section of the network, or subnet. When a new device is
      added to a part of the network the intent is that the new device is
      assigned an available address from the local subnet address pool, leaving
      the addressing of the remainder of the network unaltered. When the subnet
      address pool is exhausted then it is necessary to renumber the subnet into
      a larger address pool. Renumbering a network or even a subnet is at best an
      extensive and highly disruptive operation. For large networks it becomes a
      protracted and expensive affair that is best avoided.
      
      For this reason a common network address plan attempts to provide each
      subnet with sufficient address space to number not only the current
      collection of attached devices, but also to encompass future expansion of
      the subnet over time. This implies that achieving a 100% use level of
      addresses is not an achievable objective. What level of utilization is
      achievable?
      
      Early experience with this in the IPv4 world indicated that achieving an
      address utilization rate of 10%, where 10% of the address block was
      actually used to number devices and 90% was sitting unused in various
      address pools was an reasonable outcome. Subsequent refinements of the
      subnetting model in IPv4 with variable length subnet address blocks allowed
      far higher utilization rates to be achieved, and current IPv4 address
      distribution policies call for address utilization rates of some 80% as a
      threshold level that should be achieved before more address space is
      allocated to the service provider.
      
      This is a relatively extreme metric, and it places a considerable burden on
      local network managers to achieve such a high address utilization level. It
      is often the case in IPv4 deployments that local managers use private
      addresses using a much lower address utilization level and then place
      network address translators on the boundary in order to meet these
      objectives. It is certainly an stated objective of IPv6 to eliminate the
      forced need to deploy these forms of on-the-fly packet translators in a
      network and some thought has gone into devising a more suitable address
      utilization metric.
      
      With IPv6 the concept of address utilization efficiencies has been
      redrafted. Within end-sites each subnet has 64 bits of address pool, and no
      particular utilization target is specified. Even in terms of numbering of
      subnets there is no particular address efficiency metric, as each end site
      is assigned a 16 bit subnet space that they can deploy in any manner of
      their choosing. The only place where an efficiency metric is specified is
      with the ISP, and that is a metric of the efficiency of the end-site
      numbering within the service provider?s address pool. In other words we are
      talking about the efficiency metric of /48 assignments, and not of end
      device /128 address assignments. An additional consideration has been that
      a fixed threshold value of a /48 utilization metric irrespective of network
      size either imposes an unnecessary burden on larger service providers if
      high threshold values are used, or is highly inefficient for smaller
      service providers if small threshold values are used, and an alternative
      form of calculating a varying efficiency metric has been used.
      
      The guiding observation in defining this calculated efficiency metric is
      that a service provider network typically use a number of levels of
      hierarchy. A large service provider may divide the address pool into
      regional address blocks. Within each region the address block is likely to
      be further divided into address blocks per network access point, or POPs.
      Within each POP each address block may be further divided into access
      classes. Within each access class address block individual end-site
      addresses are assigned. This then defines a four level internal address
      hierarchy. This plan is intended to ensure that there is some
      aggregateability in the address prefixes carried in the network?s interior
      routing system, so that the routing system can operate in a scaleable and
      stable fashion. In such larger IP networks there may be of the order of
      millions of end site address assignments, and possibly much larger in a
      IPv6 commodity world, and address aggregation is the only way to reduce the
      internal routing load to a more viable size of the order of thousands of
      routed prefixes at any point in the network, rather than millions. Smaller
      networks may have a smaller number of internal levels of hierarchy, perhaps
      using only one or two levels. Networks with greater levels of network
      structure, and corresponding greater levels of address aggregation
      hierarchy, have less efficient utilization efficiencies than those with
      smaller levels of network structure, and smaller levels of address
      aggregation hierarchy. Assuming that at any level of the hierarchy a
      utilization efficiency of, say 0.7 (or 70%) can be achieved, then a two
      level hierarchy achieves a threshold level of efficiency of 0.49 (or 0.72)
      and a four level hierarchy would map to an efficiency value of 0.24 (or
      0.74).
      
      The next part of this process is to define the relative sizes of ?large?
      and ?small? networks in terms of the change in network size that
      corresponds to the addition of a new level of internal hierarchy.
      Experience to date indicates that this relationship between network size
      and levels of internal network structure is not a linear relationship, but
      looks more along the lines of some form of multiplicative increase in size
      for each additional level of structure. For example, the relationship may
      correspond to an increase in size of the network by a factor of, say, 4,
      for each additional level of network structure. This leads to the general
      observation that we are looking at a relationship of two exponential
      values, in which case the ratio of the log of these two values is a
      constant.
      
      And this leads to the Host Density Ratio. This ratio is expressed as:
      
            HD = log(number of allocated objects) / log (pool size)    
      
      The value used in the IPv6 address allocation policies is an HD Ratio of
      0.8.
      
      The following table shows the target utilization levels for various sizes
      of IPv6 address blocks, where the right-most column is the threshold level
      of utilization according to the 0.8 HD-Ratio value.
      
      
      Prefix      /48 count   end-site count
                      
      /32            65,536         7,132
      /31           131,072        12,417
      /30           262,144        21,619
      /29           524,288        37,641
      /28         1,048,576        65,536
      /27         2,097,152       114,105
      /26         4,194,304       198,668
      /25         8,388,608       345,901
      /24        16,777,216       602,249
      /23        33,554,432     1,048,576
      /22        67,108,864     1,825,677
      /21       134,217,728     3,178,688
      /20       268,435,456     5,534,417
      /19       536,870,912     9,635,980
      /18     1,073,741,824    16,777,216
      
                        Table 1 (A) ? Application of the 0.8 HD Ratio
      
      Putting it all together
      
      The IPv6 address plan is intentionally one that is simple and easy to use.
      The IPv6 address plan is intended to provide simple structures that allow
      low overhead deployments of small and large networks, both for the local
      network management or end site and for the IPv6 service provider in
      deploying an address plan across their network with ease of expansion while
      avoiding renumbering whenever possible. The IPv6 address plan is also
      intended to accommodate the consideration that aggregation and hierarchies
      of address structures are not highly efficient users of address space.
      
      The inputs to the total consumption of address space are the factors of a
      64 bit device identifier, a 16 bit subnet identifier, an HD-Ratio of 0.8
      for end-site utilization, a set of global populations of network
      deployments and an anticipated lifetime of at least 60 years. The basic sum
      is an end-site population of between 50 billion and 200 billion. Applying
      at HD-Ratio of 0.8 to this range of values gives a total address
      requirement of between a /1 to a /4. That?s between 1/2 and 1/16 of the
      total IPv6 address pool.
      
      The corresponding 0.8 HD Ratio mapping is indicated in the following table:
      
      
      Prefix       /48 count          end-site count    
      
         /17      2,147,483,648         29,210,830
         /16      4,294,967,296         50,859,008    
         /15      8,589,934,592         88,550,677    
         /14     17,179,869,184        154,175,683    
         /13     34,359,738,368        268,435,456    
         /12     68,719,476,736        467,373,275    
         /11    137,438,953,472        813,744,135    
         /10    274,877,906,944      1,416,810,831    
         /9     549,755,813,888      2,466,810,934    
         /8   1,099,511,627,776      4,294,967,296    
         /7   2,199,023,255,552      7,477,972,398    
         /6   4,398,046,511,104     13,019,906,166    
         /5   8,796,093,022,208     22,668,973,294
         /4  17,592,186,044,416     39,468,974,941
         /3  35,184,372,088,832     68,719,476,736
         /2  70,368,744,177,664    119,647,558,364
         /1 140,737,488,355,328    208,318,498,661
      
                        Table 1 (B) ? Application of the 0.8 HD Ratio
      
      Using this HD ratio across the total IPv6 address pool, the address pool
      has a total capacity of numbering 0.0013 x 248 end sites, or
      362,703,572,709, roughly some 362 billion addressed end sites. By
      comparison a similar estimate is provided in RFC3177, which provided a
      total end-site census of some 178 billion end-sites, and a calculation of
      an equivalent address requirement of a /3.
      
      Considering that this calculation of total demand for IPv6 end site
      addresses makes a number of quite sweeping assumptions there is some
      uncertainty associated with this estimated total of between 50 to 200
      billion end sites. We may need to stick with this technology for longer
      than 60 years. It may be that our assumptions about the ubiquity of silicon
      devices are inadequate, or that we may see the use of different address
      models, such as one-off use of addresses. These factors can be summarized
      as:
      ?	Time period estimates (decades vs. centuries)
      ?	Consumption models (recyclable vs. one-time manufacture)
      ?	Network models (single domain vs. overlays)
      ?	Network Service models (value-add-service vs. commodity
              distribution)
      ?	Device service models (discrete devices vs. ubiquitous embedding)
      ?	Population counts (human populations vs. device populations)
      ?	Address Distribution models (cohesive uniform policies vs. diverse
              supply streams)
      ?	Overall utilization efficiency models (aggregated commodity supply
              chains vs. specialized markets)
      
      The question that arises from this is: are we comfortable with this outcome
      given these uncertainties over the total demand estimate? Is IPv6 truly big
      enough?
      
      If not then we need to consider the various components of the IPv6 address
      plan and see if there are some parameter adjustments that can be made that
      would allow some greater margins in the total address consumption levels.
      The three areas of consideration are :
      
      1.	the size of the interface identifier (currently set to 64 bits), 
      
      2.	the size of the subnet identifier (currently set to 16 bits), and 
      
      3.	the value of the Host Density Ratio (currently set to 0.8). 
      
      Let?s look at each of these in turn to see if there is some latitude to
      change these settings in such a way that would provide some greater level
      of ?comfort margin? for ensuring that the total IPv6 address consumption
      value can readily fit within the IPv6 address plan.
      
      1. The 64 bit Interface Identifier
      
      The IPv6 address plan divides the address into two distinct parts: a
      network location identification part and a device interface identification
      part. The dividing point is at the 64th bit position.
      
      It was anticipated that this would allow each manufactured network media
      interface to be assigned a unique 64 bit identification code. This
      interface identification code was intended to function in some fashion as
      an endpoint identification, where, irrespective of the location of the
      endpoint within the network, it would maintain its unique endpoint
      identification. The implication here is that the same endpoint identity
      values cannot be used by two or more distinct endpoints. This turns the
      capacity of the address space into 264 possible endpoints in any one of 264
      network locations. The benefit was an intention to provide a solution to
      the current semantic overloading of an IPv4 address, which encompasses
      elements of both location and identity. However, there are a number of
      unresolved issues here, relating to uniqueness, persistence, authenticity
      and privacy of this identity space.
      
      The 64-bit IPv6 interface ID is an architectural boundary in IPv6, defined
      by Stateless Address Autoconfiguration [RFC2462]. This function assumes
      IPv6 interface identifiers are fixed length 64 bit fields. Changing this
      boundary would impact existing implementations of this function, and any
      transition to a different boundary would take some time. An alternative
      approach is to deprecate stateless autoconfiguration completely for
      generating interface identifiers and use the Dynamic Host Configuration
      Protocol (DHCP) for this function. However, client implementation of DHCP
      for address configuration are not mandatory in IPv6, and it is believed
      that a significant percentage of IPv6 implementations do not support DHC
      for address configuration.
      
      So already it appears that even prior to mass deployment IPv6 has managed
      to accumulate some issues of legacy here, and while a change in the length
      of this identifier would recover a large number of address bits, this would
      have some impact on existing implementations of IPv6.
      
      There is a considerable measure of reluctance for further protocol change
      here that must be acknowledged. IPv6 has had a considerable developmental
      lead time and there is a substantial body of opinion that it is time to
      cease further protocol specification modifications and provide industry
      with a stable view of the IPv6 protocol. Without this assurance of
      stability vendors are reluctant to commit the protocol into products,
      service providers are reluctant to commit to deployment programs and the
      protocol remains an experiment rather than a service platform for a
      communications network. So while this particular part of the address plan
      represents the greatest level of gain in terms of total address capacity,
      it also presents a considerable risk to the industry acceptance of IPv6,
      and for this reason changes in the length and structure of this part of the
      IPv6 address plan do not represent a preferred path.
      
      2. The Subnet Identifier
      
      The subnet identifier part of the IPv6 address is a variable length field.
      However, within the parameters of current address allocation policies the
      Regional Internet Registries assume that general case for end site
      assignments are /48s, and thus utilization measurements are based on an HD-
      ratio that counts numbers of /48 assignments. Allocating a /48 to an end
      site allows each site to deploy up to 65,536 subnets. While that number may
      make sense for larger enterprises, it is admittedly hard to imagine a
      typical home network, or a personal local area network requiring this much
      subnet address space.
      
      Looking back at some of the original motivations behind the /48
      recommendation [RFC3177], one overriding concern was to ensure that end
      sites could easily obtain sufficient address space without having to "jump
      through administrative hoops" to do so. As a comparison point, in IPv4
      typical home users are given a single public IP address (even this is not
      always assured), but getting even a small number of additional addresses is
      often a more expensive option either in terms of the effort needed to
      obtain additional addresses, or in the actual cost involved. It should be
      noted that the "cost" of additional addresses cannot generally be justified
      by the actual supply cost of those addresses, but the need for additional
      addresses is sometimes used to imply a different type or "higher grade" of
      service, for which some ISPs charge a premium. Thus, an important goal in
      IPv6 was to significantly change the default end site assignment, from "a
      single address" to "multiple networks".
      
      Another motivating concern was that if a site changes ISPs and subsequently
      renumbers, renumbering from a larger set of "subnet bits" into a smaller
      set is particularly painful, as it can require making changes to the
      network itself (e.g., collapsing links) as well as reconfiguring the
      network into a different prefix and associated prefix length. In contrast,
      renumbering a site into a subnet that has the same number of subnet bits is
      considered to be easier, because only the top-level bits of the common
      address prefix need to change. Thus, another goal of the RFC 3177
      recommendation is to ensure that upon renumbering, one does not have to
      deal with a comprehensive reconfiguration of the local network.
      
      These concerns were met by the /48 recommendation, but could also be
      realized through a more conservative approach. For example, one can imagine
      "classes" of users, with default sizes for each class. For example:
      
        - A PDA device with a low bandwidth WAN connection and a personal area
          network (PAN) connection - a single network or /64 assignment.
      
          The /64 assignment allows for the addressing of a number of hosts, each
          connected to the same PAN link as the device. This would be appropriate
          in deployments where the end device is not expected to provide
          connectivity services to a larger site, but is intended to provide
          connectivity for the device and a small number additional devices
          directly connected to the same PAN as the primary device.
      
        - Small Office, Home Office (SOHO) - expected to have a small number of
          networks - a /56 assignment
      
          This is similar to the /48 motivation, but includes the expectation
          that the typical small office or home environment has a limited
          requirement for multiple discrete subnets, and this expectation could
          be generally achieved within a pool for 256 discrete subnet
          identifiers.
      
        - Other enterprise and organizational entities ? a /48 assignment as the
          default
      
          Although, as with existing allocation policies larger end site
          allocations are possible within this framework , according to the total
          end site requirement.
      
      A change in policy (such as above) would have a significant impact on
      address consumption projections and the expected longevity for IPv6. For
      example, changing the default allocation from a /48 to /56 (for the overall
      majority of end sites) would result in a reduction of cumulative address
      consumption by some 6 or 7 bits, or around two orders of magnitude. Of
      course, the exact amount of change depends on the relative number of home
      users compared with the number of larger sites over time.
      
      One can, of course, imagine a policy supporting the entire range of
      assignments between /48 and /64, depending on the size or type of each end
      site. However, this must be balanced against the advantages of having a
      small number of simple policies, so that end users can easily identify
      which assignment size is appropriate for them, and that there is wide
      agreement among ISPs as to what reasonable assignment sizes are for a given
      customer class. Having excess flexibility in selecting an appropriate
      assignment size for a given customer type can lead to different ISPs
      offering different assignment sizes to the same customer. This is
      undesirable because it may lead to a need to renumber into a smaller subnet
      space when switching ISPs, or may lead to ISPs attempting to differentiate
      their service offerings by offering the most liberal address assignment
      policies, defeating the purpose of having a wide range of policies.
      
      The advantage of this approach is that it does not impact on existing IPv6
      protocol implementations, nor does it create a legacy or transitional
      impact. This sits comfortably within the realm of a change to the
      allocation policy parameters that allow a more precise fit of the size of
      the allocated address block to the nature of the intended use of the
      addresses without imposing a significant additional administrative overhead
      on service providers, vendors or end consumers.
      
      3. The HD Ratio
      
      Coming from an IPv4 deployment environment the HD-Ratio value of 0.8
      represents a relatively radical change to the way in which we view end
      sites address allocations. For example, under the IPv4 address allocation
      policies a consumer market service provider with some 5 million customers
      would be expected to achieve an overall 80% address utilization. This would
      correspond to an address plan that would service this customer base from a
      pool of some 6.5 million /32 IPv4 addresses, or a total address allocation
      of a /9. A further allocation would be made only when the total addressed
      population exceeds 6.5 million. These days with DHCP and NATS most service
      providers have become accustomed to achieving even higher address
      utilization densities in IPv4, and it is not unusual to see such a service
      provider with some 5 million customers using a total address pool of a /11,
      or some 2 million /32 addresses.
      
      The equivalent allocation in IPv6 would be a /20, or some 268 million /48
      end site prefixes to service the same 5 million customers. And once the
      customer population exceeded some 5.5 million customers the allocation
      policies would allow for a further application of a /20, making a total of
      some 536 million end site addresses to draw from. This 1% utilization level
      of end sites addresses is well distanced from the current IPv4 allocation
      parameters, and the question arises as to whether this allocation policy
      has managed to pass across the points of sound engineering and venture into
      the spaces that could be associated with extravagant use.
      
      As noted above the basic proposition behind the HD Ratio is that the number
      of internal levels of aggregation hierarchy within a network increases in
      proportion to the log of the size of the network, and that at each level in
      the hierarchy one can expect to achieve a fixed level of utilization
      efficiency. This basic proposition appears to match our understanding to
      the capabilities of routing and also appears to match out experience with
      network design, so there appears to be nothing intrinsically wrong with the
      capability of the HD Ratio to capture the nature of address use within
      deployed networks.
      
      However, the lingering uncertainty remains that the value of 0.8 may not be
      the most appropriate value to capture what we would regard as reasonable
      engineering practice in network design, particularly with larger networks.
      In exploring scenarios that would result from various HD Ratio values, the
      first step is to look at the efficiency outcomes that would result from
      differing values of the HD Ratio, and map these back to the basic function
      of the number of internal levels of network hierarchy. Figure 2 shows the
      various utilization efficiency values that result from changing the HD
      Ratio for various sizes of address blocks.
      
       
      
      Figure 2 ? HD Ratio Outcomes
      
      
      The first vertical line represents the minimum allocation size of a /32.
      With a HD Ratio value of 0.8 a service provider can obtain a further
      allocation of address space once the utilization efficiency reaches 10%, or
      some 6,500 end sites drawn from a pool of 65,536 site identifiers. The
      second vertical line represents our example service provider with its 5
      million customers. With an HD Ratio of 0.8 the threshold utilization
      efficiency level is some 2%. In terms of internal levels of network
      hierarchy this corresponds to 18 internal levels of hierarchy at a per-
      level efficiency of some 80%. Even with a per-level efficiency level of 70%
      this still represents 11 levels of internal hierarchy within the network.
      
      This 0.8 value for the HD Ratio does not appear to capture reasonable
      engineering expectations of network design. Even the largest service
      provider networks do not encompass more than 5 or 6 levels of internal
      hierarchy and the internal routing protocols typically operate on a simple
      two level hierarchy.
      
      It may be useful to consider a higher value of the HD Ratio for address
      allocation policies. As can be seen in Figure 2, an HD Ratio value of 0.94
      would rephrase these threshold levels such that a /32 would need to be used
      at a level of some 50% before a further allocation is made, while the /20
      allocation would need to achieve a 31% efficiency level. This latter value
      represents a network with 5 internal levels of hierarchy, each being
      utilized to an average of 80% efficiency. As an initial observation this
      latter value appears to represent a more realistic model of network
      deployment based on a competently executed network design.
      
      Another way of looking at this data is to examine the recent past in terms
      of Internet business activity levels in IPv4, as expressed in address
      allocations, and see how this would relate to IPv6. The basic question
      posed in this exercise is: what would?ve been the total address consumption
      level over the past three years if we had been using IPv6 instead of IPv4?
      And how would this total consumption profile change if we?d been using a
      different value for the HD Ratio?
      
      This simulation exercise produces some surprising outcomes. The first is
      that 80% of the address allocations would remain at the /32 minimum
      allocation size or at a /31. Varying the HD Ratio between 0.80 and 0.96 has
      little impact on this outcome. So for the majority of ISP?s in the last
      three years a change in the HD Ratio value would have no significant impact
      on the amount of allocated addresses that they would receive. The second
      outcome is that only 2% of allocations are greater than a /27. Changing the
      HD Ratio for these allocations would lift the average address utilization
      efficiency level from 4% to 25% by a change in the HD Ratio value from 0.80
      to 0.94. In other words only a small number of large providers would see
      some change in the target efficiency levels with such a change. The third
      outcome is that the change in total address consumption by such a change in
      the HD Ratio value is a factor of 10. In other words under the current HD
      Ratio value of 0.8 a small fraction of the allocations (2%) is consuming
      over 95% of the total address pool.
      
      So perhaps there is some benefit in reviewing this initial choice of 0.80
      as an HD Ratio value. The relevant questions here is what is an appropriate
      HD Ratio value to use? Certainly the initial choice of 0.8 as a value was a
      somewhat arbitrary one, made more in an effort to define an initial set of
      address allocation policies than being based in a more deeply researched
      effort to model sound engineering design principles. In reconsidering this
      value it would be helpful to consider the following aspects:
      
       - What is common practice in today?s network in terms of internal
         architecture?
      
       - Should we define a common ?baseline? efficiency level rather than an
         average attainable level? In other words, what value would be readily
         achievable by large and small networks without resorting to frequent
         network renumbering or unacceptable internal route fragmentation?
      
       - What are the overall longer term objectives? What is the anticipated
         address pool lifetime of various HD Ratio values? What would be the
         anticipated impact on the routing space?
      
      It would appear that some further activity is needed here to explore what
      value for a threshold address utilization efficiency level represents a
      reasonable balance between simplicity of network deployment and the larger
      issues of conservatism in the impacts on the routing space and ensuring
      that the overall address pool can indeed accommodate extended lifetime
      expectations.
      
      Putting it back together again
      
      It appears that there are two aspects to the current address policy
      framework that merit further broad consideration, namely the subnet
      identifier size and the HD Ratio.
      
      An additional point in the subnet allocation policy, using a /56 allocation
      point for SOHO End Sites in addition to the current /48 End Site allocation
      point may alter the cumulative address consumption total by some 6 to 7
      bits of address space, without any major impact on the engineering of end
      site networks, and without any significant impact on service provider
      procedures in address allocations to end sites. Such a measure would still
      preserve the essential elements of simplicity while allowing the overall
      majority of end sites to use an address block that is more commensurate
      with anticipated needs in terms of subnetting.
      
      The HD Ratio appears to be another area of further study. Initial studies
      of the impacts of various HD Ratio settings indicate that if the HD Ratio
      setting of 0.8 implies a total consumption of a certain amount of address
      space, then a setting of 0.87 would imply a total consumption of ½ of this
      amount and a setting of 0.94 would imply a total consumption of 1/10 of
      this amount. In other words there is the potential to alter the cumulative
      consumption of address space by some 3 bits.
      
      Just these two measures would provide latitude to reduce total consumption
      levels by up to 10 bits, or a total consumption of between a /10 to a /17
      of address space. If the initial estimates of a total consumption of a /1
      to a /4 appear to represent some level of discomfort in the total capacity
      of IPv6 it is reasonable to estimate that a /10 to a /17 would represent a
      much higher level of confidence that IPv6 would be capable of meeting a
      much broader set of potential future scenarios for the role on the Internet
      across the coming century or perhaps even longer.
      
      The  total capacity of the IPv6 address plan would be then encompass 0.1 x
      252, or 450,359,972,737,050 addressed end sites. That?s 450 thousand
      billion, a one thousand-fold increase in total capacity. Even given the
      considerable levels of uncertainty over our original total demand estimate
      of between 50 to 200 billion end sites, this revised outcome appears to be
      a very comfortable fit.
      
      Public Policy and the ?Fairness? factor
      
      If the current IPv6 address plan has some risks of premature exhaustion. It
      is possible to make some adjustments to this address plan without any
      related protocol changes. Such adjustments would be capable of mitigating
      these risks. The consequent question is whether these adjustments should be
      undertaken now or later.
      
      One approach is to adopt a ?wait and see? attitude, and defer consideration
      until more data is available. This viewpoint is expressed in RFC3177:
      
              We are highly confident in the validity of this analysis, based on
              experience with IPv4 and several other address spaces, and on
              extremely ambitious scaling goals for the Internet amounting to an
              80 bit address space *per person*. Even so, being acutely aware of
              the history of under-estimating demand, the IETF has reserved more
              than 85% of the address space (i.e., the bulk of the space not
              under the 001 Global Unicast Address prefix). Therefore, if the
              analysis does one day turn out to be wrong, our successors will
              still have the option of imposing much more restrictive allocation
              policies on the remaining 85%. However, we must stress that vendors
              should not encode any of the boundaries discussed here either in
              software nor hardware. Under that assumption, should we ever have
              to use the remaining 85% of the address space, such a migration may
              not be devoid of pain, but it should be far less disruptive than
              deployment of a new version of IP.
              [RFC3177]
      
      An alternative way of expressing this perspective is that it appears to be
      premature to consider changes to the IPv6 address plan when we have so
      little experience with deployment of IPv6. It would appear that we are not
      qualified to make such decisions and we should defer the entire matter to
      more qualified individuals. Who would they be? From this perspective they
      would be the network engineers of the future who would have had 10-20 years
      of IPv6 operational experience.
      
      Lets look at this assertion in a little more detail. If the consumption
      analysis in RFC3177 is indeed flawed, and uptake is larger than has been
      anticipated, then yes, there will still be large pools of unallocated
      address space available, and yes, it will be possible, in theory at any
      rate, to use a different addressing plan on this remaining space which
      targets a higher utilization rate. However the installed base of IPv6 will
      also be extremely large at this point. Indeed the deployed base will be so
      large that the problem of inertial mass and potential inequities in
      distribution structures will effectively imply that any changes will be
      extremely tough, if feasible at all.
      
      It could be argued that we have already lived through a similar transition
      in IPv4 in the change from class-based addressing to one of classless
      addressing plus Network Address Translators. The legacy of this transition
      is uncomfortable, with later adopters pointing to the somewhat liberal
      address holdings of the early adopters and asking why they have to bear the
      brunt of the cost and effort to achieve very high address utilization rates
      while the early adopters are still able to deploy relatively simple, but
      somewhat more extravagant addressing schemes across their networks.
      
      When to consider such a change to the address plan is very much a public
      policy topic. While there is a temptation to leave well alone, from a
      public policy perspective we stand the risk of, yet again, visibly creating
      an early adopter reward and a corresponding late adopter set of barriers
      and penalties. I suspect that IP has already exhausted any tolerance that
      may have been enjoyed in the past on this type of behaviour and there is a
      strong impetus on the part of many developing populous economies not to see
      such a precise rerun of what they would term previous mistakes. This is not
      an abstract concept but one where we are already seeing proposals from the
      ITU-T to establish an alternative IPv6 address distribution system that
      appears to be based around this particular concern that by deferring this
      decision once more we appear to be creating a framework that establishes
      early adopter rewards and late adopter penalties.
      
      In other words it is possible to put forward the case that considering
      changes to the IPv6 address plan at this point is a premature discussion,
      but others, for equally valid reasons, see it as being timely, while others
      see this as an urgent priority. There is a case to be made that we should
      study the evolution of address policies in the history of IPv4 and be
      careful to avoid a needless repetition of earlier mistakes. It would appear
      to be prudent, and indeed ?fairer? to plan for success rather than failure,
      and plan for extensive, indeed ubiquitous deployment of IPv6 for an
      extended period of time. In such a scenario there is little room for
      structural inequities in the address distribution model, and that at all
      times all players should be positioned evenly with respect to access to
      addresses. Consequently there would be little room to adjust the address
      plan parameters on the fly and we should exercise some care to ensure that
      the address plan structure we adopt at the outset has sufficient room to
      accommodate future requirements on a similar, if not identical, basis. From
      this perspective the time for consideration of the address plan and its
      associated parameters is now, rather than deferring the matter to some
      unspecified future time.
      
      The alternative is that the installed base of IPv6 will consume very little
      address space in the coming decades, in which case the entire topic would
      be irrelevant! In other words this topic is predicated on the assumption
      that in some 50 or 100 years hence we will still be using IP as the base
      technology for a global communications enterprise.
      
      This is a central topic to the entire consideration of IPv6 address plans.
      My best answer to this assumption is that I really don't know which,
      logically, admits the possibility of "yes, we?ll still be using IP a
      century hence.? Some technologies are "sticky" simply because they work and
      the cost of universal adoption of alternatives is just too high. Over a
      century later we still use the internal consumption engine, many decades
      later we still use amplitude modulated radio signalling, and so on. It may
      well be the case that packet switching and IP is one of these ?sticky?
      technologies, in which case the longevity of the address architecture is
      indeed a critical issue.
      
      Its not clear that we should be in the business of built in obsolescence,
      and certainly not if we can buy additional time without undue pain. We?ve
      looked at the HD ratio and the subnet boundary as potential points of
      variation in the IPv6 address plan that could admit more efficient
      utilization without substantial alteration to the overall IPv6 architecture
      and without undue need to alter existing equipment, software or current
      deployments, such as they are today. Its certainly the case that alteration
      of the length of the global identifier could admit vastly greater address
      utilization benefits but of course the question here is, simply, whether
      the gain is worth the pain.
      
      However, its sensible to also note that if we think that "installed base"
      is an argument today in terms of the pain associated with changing the 64
      bit length for the device identifier, just wait until the installed base of
      end sites gets to the 30 billion mark that is commensurate with a /4
      consumption under current policies. 30 billion end sites would be a very
      impressively large installed base, and its inertial impetus would say to me
      that at that stage your wriggle room for changes in the address plan for
      the remaining space is pretty much a lost opportunity. So if we are having
      trouble now in looking at the global identifier on the basis of the
      inertial mass of already deployed systems and services, then you cannot
      also put forward the proposition that we can change things once we've
      deployed 30 billion end site instances of the same.
      
      So I'm afraid that "we've still got adjustment room in the future so don't
      worry about it now" is not an approach that can be accepted easily - if at
      all. At that point the late comers will be complaining that they are
      exposed to tougher and more constrained policies that are deployed at a
      higher cost than that of the early adopters - and if all this sounds
      hauntingly familiar in reference to the current debates about national
      interests and highly populous economies and various address policy
      frameworks, then it should. I'm afraid that there's an increasing cynicism
      out there about the refrain of "don't worry we'll fix it once its visibly
      broken" with respect to address policies. We should at this point be
      striving to instil some broad confidence in the proposition that we can
      provide a stable and enduring platform for the world's communications
      needs.
      
      While the HD-Ratio setting and the end-site prefix assignment points are
      simply adjustments to the address plan and do not impact the protocol
      architecture, the 64/64 split is not quite in the same category here. There
      is an impact on the current address architecture and indeed on the protocol
      specification itself. Its true that the original motivations for this
      particular aspect of the address architecture have largely dissipated, or
      at least have been unable to be realized, and the residual reasons for its
      adoption are based more in legacy conformance than in true utility. But
      here its not quite so clear to me that change is necessary . Maybe it would
      be more practical to pursue some more conservative opportunities that
      represent some small scale parameter value shifts and adopt a preference to
      look at the HD Ratio and the End Site identifier allocation size points
      over looking at the 64 bit split point between local identification and
      routing identifiers.
      
      In attempting to look at measures that would ensure a prolific and valuable
      lifecycle for IPv6 over an extended time care needs to be exercised in
      ensuring that we continue to have a stable technology base in IPv6. Further
      changes to the IPv6 protocol at this stage would entrench attitudes that
      IPv6 remains a developmental exercise rather than a technology capable of
      sustaining a global investment of trillions of dollars over the coming
      decades. However, happily, there does appear to be sufficient scope to make
      some small parameter changes to the IPv6 address allocations policies
      without making any changes to the protocol itself that would ensure that
      even the most optimistic predictions of uptake of IPv6 across its lifetime
      can be readily fuelled by availability of that most essential element of
      networks: addresses.
      
      References
      
      RFC 1715	The H Ratio for Address Assignment Efficiency, C. Huitema,
                      November 1994.
      
      RFC 2462	IPv6 Stateless Address Autoconfiguration, S. Thomson, T.
                      Narten, December 1998.
      
      RFC 3177	IAB/IESG Recommendations on IPv6 Address Allocations to
                      Sites, IAB, IESG, September 2001.
      
      RFC 3194	The H-Density Ratio for Address Assignment Efficiency. An
                      Update on the H Ratio, A. Durand, C. Huitema, November
                      2001.
      
      RFC 3513	Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6) Addressing Architecture,
                      R. Hinden, S. Deering, April 2003.