On 3/12/2012 5:04 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
On Mar 12, 2012, at 9:57 AM, paul vixie wrote:
...
or, you could get this result if the post-greenfield ipv4 address
allocation system (a "market") leads to aggressive re-aggregation
(whereas i'm expecting explosive de-aggregation).
Actually, as I have said many times before, I expect that the market
will cause massive deaggregation in IPv4 which will likely force
IPv4 use to decline as it will simply become infeasible to route.
i don't think most dual stack network operators are using separate
routers, nor routers having separate RIB or FIB resources, for IPv6.
therefore if IPv4 explosively de-aggregates, it will hurt BGP stability
for IPv4 and IPv6 equally.
i therefore see no back pressure against explosive IPv4 deaggregation,
absent a new market in RIB/FIB slots. "steady state" in this case means
a hunt-and-peck search for the point at which post-greenfield IPv4 space
has vanishingly low market value because too many routers around the
world are near their architectural capacity limits. i argue that none of
us will enjoy that search process, possibly excepting router vendors and
the largest ISP's who can afford to reinvest ahead of their normal
depreciation cycle.
paul