Re: [sig-policy] [Sig-policy] prop-062-v001: Use of final /8

[David Woodgate <David.Woodgate@telstra.net>]

My initial reaction to this proposal is that it may make a large 
amount of the addresses in the last /8 unavailable for use by the 
Internet community.

My reasoning for this is thus:
- The proposal suggests that all new and existing LIRs would get only 
one /22 from the last /8
- There were ~1600 APNIC members at the start of 2008
- I don't know the number of ISPs behind the NIRs, but I'm guessing ~1000 ?
- APNIC membership grew ~200 in 2007, so allow for growth of ~1000 
ISPs over 5 years
Therefore, there may be only ~4000 LIRs in the Asia-Pacific over the 
next 5 years.

The proposal allows for 16,384 LIRs to receive allocations from the 
last /8, but if there are only 4,000 LIRs, then 75% of the /8 would 
remain unused (or about 12 million addresses).

If this is the right order of magnitude, would it be more appropriate 
to identify this proposal against a smaller size block than the 
entire /8? For comparison, the LACNIC policy that has been introduced 
only applies to the last /12, not the last /8.

(I would be very happy for someone to provide more accurate forecasts 
than I have roughly calculated above of the numbers of LIRs expected 
in the Asia-Pacific region over coming years.)

Regards,

					David Woodgate