[Pakistan] IT is not a magic wand

["Irfan Khan" <khania@super.net.pk>]

IT is not a magic wand 


By Pervez Hoodbhoy 


The present IT policy is forward-looking and far superior to other 
government policies, but nevertheless incomplete and shaky in places. 
Golden geese tend not to lay their eggs if mistreated 

Pakistan yearns for a magic lamp that can make wishes come true, a 
golden goose that can secure its future from want. Some think that 
this is now at hand. Information technology (IT) is being offered as 
a way to catapult Pakistan's stagnant economy into motion, generate 
vast amounts of foreign exchange through software exports, transform 
education, cause revolutionary increases in industrial productivity, 
modernize governmental administrative structures, create an informed 
citizenry, and much more. 

To see whether there really may be gold in the mines of cyberspace 
and whether we have what it takes to mine it, I recently met with 
IT's most passionate, articulate and powerful advocate in Pakistan, 
Dr Atta-ur-Rahman, minister of science and technology, and a first-
rate scientist. Whizzing from one meeting to the other, and working 
while others sleep, he has come up with an impressive panoply of 
projects. These range from training for simple data-entry and medical 
transcription to elaborate projects for making physical and virtual 
IT universities, and from e-commerce and e-governance to business 
incubators and overseas marketing offices. 

As the minister breathlessly reeled off one plan after the other from 
a list of 29, several thoughts - and doubts - passed through my mind. 
Here, I wish to share my feelings on three key issues with the 
reader, hoping that they will help him or her to separate fact from 
hype, and the doable from the impossible. 

First, Atta-ur-Rahman gets full marks for aggressively working to 
make the internet more cheaply and widely accessible in Pakistan. 
Costs have plunged, free internet has been promised for universities, 
and access by a local telephone call has increased from 29 cities in 
August to 300 now. Although critics say that this bites into 
government revenues, I think it is a bold and correct decision. The 
number of connected cities and towns will be doubled by next June, 
and eventual plans call for internet provision even to distant 
villages. During this process, telephone networks will be completely 
digitalized, the optic fibre network expanded, and internet via cable 
will be permitted. 

These are impressive achievements and plans, but they also beg a 
fundamental question - what shall we do with the internet once we 
have it? Computer hardware prices drop by 20-30 per cent every year. 
In a decade or two, it will become cheaper to put a computer in every 
'jhuggi' than to put the proverbial chicken in every pot. Will this 
really be revolutionary? Or, like someone with a recurring sickness, 
do we need both medicine and to change our bad habits to get well? 

To see the possibilities of the promised "internet revolution", I 
think that it is useful to compare it against an earlier 
"revolution", also mothered by communications technology. Today 70 
per cent of urban households, and 30 per cent of rural ones, watch 
TV. But has this wide access really enabled Pakistan Television to 
fulfil the promises made at the dawn of the television age? Has 
television increased social awareness, improved education, or spread 
literacy? Has it promoted a sense of civil society, emphasized civic 
duties, or helped in creating better citizens? 

Opinions may differ, but personally I think the gains have been 
small. Although a wise use of television could have generated an 
almost revolutionary social transformation, tragically that 
opportunity was lost. The reason was not for want of production 
hardware - a grant of $100 million from the Japanese government for 
establishing Educational Television (ETV) a decade ago, and a 
relatively recent grant of $10 million to Allama Iqbal Open 
University for distance-learning studio facilities, led to the 
procurement of facilities (cameras, post-production units, computers, 
studios, etc) that were once the finest in Asia. However, the 
educational programmes produced by both institutions continued to be 
precious few in number. Worse, they generally were (and are) of such 
pathetic quality and content that often they insult the imagination 
and intelligence of viewers. 

We can, if we so choose to, learn much from the failure of television 
(also radio!). The mere existence of a medium does not guarantee the 
existence of a worthwhile message. While the interactivity provided 
by the Internet can be used to advantage, it can also easily be 
wasted - the user's educational level and goals decide between the 
two. Whether it be the television or the Internet, it is crucial to 
move away from total emphasis on the medium to a more balanced 
position that gives pre-eminence to generating high-quality materials 
specific to Pakistani users. Without this fundamental shift of 
mindset, for the bulk of users, computers and the Internet will be 
good only for e-mail, chat sessions and, like television, advertising 
and cheap entertainment. 

Disappointingly, even at the present time the importance and 
difficulty of generating content is only dimly realized, and it 
receives attention only in the margins of the present IT policy. If 
education is a major objective behind investing in the internet, then 
why is there no credible plan to generate multi-media materials for 
the teaching of school, college, and university subjects? Similarly, 
who will invest in the massive effort to make web-based vocational 
training courses? And where is the recognition that less than five 
per cent of Pakistanis are literate in English? Without addressing 
these fundamental questions, and coming up with credible solutions, 
we simply cannot claim to have a comprehensive IT policy. 

Second, Atta-ur-Rahman gets good marks for recognizing that Pakistan 
lacks - and must speedily increase - the number of computer 
scientists, programmers, networking specialists, and information 
technologists. Scolarships and Qarz-i-Hasna schemes for 1070 students 
in Bachelors and Masters IT degree programmes are being provided on a 
competitive basis, and a total of 10,000 students appeared in the 
National Entry Test last month. But who will train them in a country 
where competent faculty is scarece? In response to my question of how 
many PhDs in computer science are currently resident in Pakistan, he 
promptly responded "probably around seven or eight". While this reply 
should be appreciated for its candidness, it also underscores the 
fragile foundations for his move to create new high-level 
institutions within the country, a cornerstone of the new IT policy. 

The IT policy calls for setting up seven new IT universities, making 
major improvements in over 30 universities and institutes, and 
setting up a TV channel dedicated to IT. Fortunately by taking over 
existing buildings, there will be no major investments in bricks-and-
mortar. Nevertheless to set up so many new universities is a tall 
order for which even 70-80 computer science PhDs, rather than the 
seven/eight at hand, would be far from sufficient. Where shall all 
the trained and experienced computer science faculty for the new 
universities and other professionals come from? Even so-called "top-
class" teaching institutions like GIKI, NUST, and FAST cannot find 
the high-level computer people they need. Glancing through recent 
newspaper advertisements, I am struck by the number of universities 
and technical institutes that are seeking computer science department 
heads who "may be MSc in computer science although PhD is preferred". 

Should one then do without real computer science and concentrate on 
the "marketable" only? This is dangerous and ad hoc. Simply teaching 
software packages and languages is not good enough because they are 
applications of what someone else has developed and, useful as they 
are, there are few abiding principles to be learnt from them. 
Obsolescence is built into the product - packages and languages have 
the permanence of a Parisian fashion. For example, Cobol or Fortran 
programmers, as well as card-punch operators, are today seen as 
quaint relics belonging to the age of dinosaurs. 

We need to learn from past mistakes. I can say from experience that a 
build-now-get-faculty-later approach to higher education just doesn't 
work; the disastrous state of Pakistan's 24 state universities is 
solid proof. It may be that nothing short of an all-out national 
campaign to bring in hundreds of qualified foreign nationals, as well 
as Pakistanis living abroad, is going to change the situation. It is 
encouraging to note that preliminary steps in this direction have 
been taken and advertisements for hirinh high-level computer and IT 
specialists are expected to appear shortly in the international 
media. However, until there is some indication that this effort will 
bear fruit, it is unwise and premature to announce new universities. 

Thirdly, and finally, Atta-ur-Rahman has generated real enthusiasm 
among overseas Pakistanis who, stung by Indian IT advances and 
dismayed by Pakistan's backwardness, seem to be willing to put some 
hard cash into creating "business incubators" and loan banks for 
Pakistani IT entrepreneurs. The Bangalore model has become the dream 
and envy of our leaders today. Wealthy Pakistanis have created 
venture capital initiatives aimed at stimulating software production 
and export, and capturing software niche markets overseas. 

Streamlining laws, tax concessions, and developing a reliable 
communications network will certainly help in attaining this goal, 
but two major impediments cannot be ignored. The first is the 
generally poor educational quality of local computer science and IT 
graduates, the products of an educational system that went to pot 
decades ago. These are precisely the workers who are supposed to make 
the product and produce the wealth - management and finance are mere 
facilitators. But while the best local graduates are indeed world-
class, the majority suffers from an acute lack of depth and breadth. 
In comprehension of English, they are way behind their Indian 
counterparts and we have not even begun to realize that the enormous 
success of India in computers and IT owes much to high Indian 
standards in mathematics research and teaching. 

The large and increasing emigration of the best IT workers (along 
with many other people with skills that are valued in the 
international marketplace) is another negative factor. Pulled by 
salaries that are huge on the Pakistani scale, and pushed by the 
growing pessimism about the country's future, there is an unending 
haemorrhage. I see long lines of visa applicants queue up before the 
European and US embassies on every working day. 

Nevertheless, one hopes that IT export plans will work, and work 
well. The growing number of software companies is a hopeful sign. 
Further, the energy and enthusiasm generated by IT is quite 
unprecedented and, in a country that has become increasingly cynical 
and less hopeful, provides a welcome relief. My personal belief is 
that despite hyperbole and exaggeration, advances in computer and 
communications technology definitely offer Pakistan the promise of a 
better future, one that we should eagerly grasp and invest in. The 
present IT policy is forward-looking and far superior to other 
government policies, but nevertheless incomplete and shaky in places. 
Golden geese are finicky and tend not to lay their eggs if 
mistreated. In the above I have discussed crucial policy flaws that, 
if not corrected, would negate positive gains. 

Finally, I wish to point out that no technology has ever made a real 
difference to society unless accompanied by an ideology of progress 
and rational apportioning of resources. The Taliban, for example, 
smash TV sets rather than trying to build or use them. Pakistan 
wastes its few scientific and technological resources to make nuclear 
weapons and ballistic missiles, adding nothing to society or economy. 
Real progress will be possible only if Pakistani society is willing 
to use information technology as a vehicle that brings us closer to 
modernity, and makes us more accepting of science and reason in the 
arbitration of human affairs. 


http://www.dawn.com/events/perspective/infotech3.htm