Don't Be A Deer

["Bala Pillai (Sydney)" <bala@apic.net>]

Dear APPLers,

How can we APPLers together beef up the non-dominated Internet? Glue
together closer for a start? Evangelize community glue-ing together
serendipity devices like YahooMessenger between us?

cheers../bala
bala@apic.net
http://www.apic.net

----- Original Message -----
From: DaveNet email <dave@scripting.com>
To: DaveNet World <davenet-world@scripting.com>
Sent: Saturday, June 23, 2001 7:21 AM
Subject: Don't Be A Deer


> DaveNet essay, "Don't Be A Deer", released on 6/22/2001; 2:20:19 PM
Pacific.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
>
> ***Good afternoon
>
> Good afternoon, a short piece before a summer weekend, some things to
think about while gardening, beach-going and barbecuing.
>
> Last weekend talks broke off between AOL and Microsoft on renewing their
bundling deal for Windows XP. AOL has the content advantage and Microsoft
has the technology and developer advantage. Microsoft knows how to entice
developers into locked trunks, or at least they used to; and AOL has the
huge Time-Warner content machine to churn out stuff for people to read,
watch and listen to; but AOL is not a developer-oriented culture.
>
> Earlier this week a group of Silicon Valley venture capitalists met with
Microsoft to learn about opportunities developing around and on top of
Microsoft's new platform based on Hailstorm, SOAP and XML. They took a poll
of the attendees, forty percent said they'd be comfortable investing
alongside Microsoft. That's either high or low depending on how you look at
it. I think it's high.
>
> Meanwhile the Smart Tags mess provides a clue to the way the new Microsoft
will work. More and more over time they will restrict and contrain and mold
the Web to offset AOL's content advantage. The big question is will AOL be
able to meet Microsoft in creating relationships with developers? As much as
I'd like to believe that AOL could, it's a fantastic operational and
marketing company, they have little experience working with developers, on
any basis, with lots of lock-in or lots of freedom.
>
> So I've come to see the next few years as a period when the Web will fork
into possibly three different incompatible environments: One dominated by
Microsoft, one by AOL, and one not dominated at all. I will not of course
develop for any dominated platform. I insist that the Web is the platform
without a platform vendor. I encourage all others, Microsoft and AOL
included, to get behind this idea because long-term that's how it will shake
out.
>
> Genies don't go back in bottles, Microsoft's glory days are behind them.
Windows dominated in the early 90s because Apple and IBM left a vacuum and
GUIs were at the leading edge and not yet a commodity. Now the Web is
maturing, and no matter how much Ballmer screams "XML XML!" it either isn't
going to happen or it isn't going to gel around Microsoft. Microsoft only
knows dominance, they've proven it yet again, and XML is not about
dominance, just as the Web could not flourish with the kind of control that
Microsoft wants to impose now.
>
> I am absolutely sure Microsoft will retract Smart Tags. Give it two weeks
before the major non-AOL publications figure out what's going on. And don't
forget the US government. I doubt if the White House or the Library of
Congress want their websites annotated by a technology company. Remember
they have tanks and nukes and trillions of dollars. Microsoft certainly has
balls, but they must not understand how big the Web has gotten.
>
> ***Don't be a deer
>
> This is not a good time to be a deer caught in the headlights. Remember,
for all the supposed invincibility of Microsoft, they have never been able
to blaze their own trail, they always needed something to catch up to, and
of course now that is AOL. When past adversaries have lost to Microsoft it's
because they let Microsoft call the shots. They waited for the dust to
settle, and by the time that happened, their products were dead, their
customers had moved on, and no one cared what they wanted. The list is long
and well-recited.
>
> However, in all the history, there's no example of an adversary of
Microsoft's who truly zigged to their zag, took advantage of the
opportunities they left behind, the unserved constituencies. Netscape never
had anything to say to Web developers. Sun tried to lock-in the Java
developers. It's never happened that an independent developer community
really banded together, for the good of all, to offer a true alternative to
what Microsoft was offering. Today Microsoft has more in common with
Ashton-Tate, unable to thwart the herd of developers jumping ship. Microsoft
brought the exodus on themselves, by crossing the will of the Java
developers, and now by trying to lock innocent Web publishers, large and
small, behind a wall of editorial annotation. They are always undermining
developers as they hype up their love of developers. When will the rest of
us get hip to this?
>
> In today's scene, to zig to Microsoft's zag would mean applying enough
resources, collectively, to produce several good alternatives to Microsoft's
browser, ones which don't carry the lock-in burden and don't have to protect
Microsoft Office. Such browsers would give more control to writers,
designers and programmers, as Microsoft is taking 1984ish steps to take
control for themselves, and would be a delightful writing tool far more
appropriate to today's work environment than the aging and bloated Word,
Powerpoint and Excel.
>
> In other words, the opportunities for the technology industry have never
been greater, but there's a lot of hard work to do, and you have to have a
winning philosophy and excellent technology. To win now, you can't be a deer
caught in the headlights, you have to stand tall, bet on technology, move
with conviction and work with others.
>
> That no Silicon Valley company, or group of companies, is in the running
for the Leader of the Web is a clue. It's time for us to re-think,
geographically and inclusively -- to work with other technology centers
around the world, and offer a great alternative to Microsoft's lock-in. It's
totally possible, there are no real secrets in what they're doing, we just
have to have the will to win.
>
> Dave Winer
>
> PS: I've changed the tagline at the bottom of each DaveNet email. It used
to say "It's even worse than it appears." Now it says "There's no time like
now." Gotta change with the times. ;->
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
> (c) Copyright 1994-2001, Dave Winer. http://davenet.userland.com/.
> "There's no time like now."
>
>

* APPLe: To unsubscribe, send "unsubscribe" to apple-request@apnic.net *